Time-Homogeneous Markov Process for Low Birth Weight Progression under Treatment
Michael Fosu Ofori *
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Kumasi Technical University, Ghana.
Stephen Boakye Twum
Faculty of Applied Sciences, Methodist University College, Accra, Ghana.
Osborne A. Y. Jackson
Department of Mathematics, University for Development Studies, Navrongo, Ghana.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Background: Low birth weight incidence is quite high in the sub region, which has a public health concern. The weight of a baby at birth has dire consequences on the child as an infant, in childhood and as an adult.
Methods: The aim of this study was to explore and examine the spread and gravity of incidence of low birth weight by using a multi-state model to understand low birth weight progression. This study utilised data by Ghana Statistical Service from Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey conducted in 2011 to monitor progress of children and women.
Results: The multi-state Markov model dealt into the low birth weight transitions and severity under three treatments where transition intensities, transition probabilities and the mean sojourn times were estimated which show that low birth weight children tend to spend less time in bad states than in good states.
Conclusion: Generally, the survival of a low birth weight child in future time decreases from state 1 to state 4, hence treatment must be applied on time.
Keywords: Low birth weight, multi-state model, incidence, transition, intensities