Aims: Dynamics of invariant influenza frequently defies intuition and qualitative forecasting. In view of the re-emergence of H1N1 infection in India, as well as the rise in H1N1 cases and associated fatalities in the current year (2015), quantitative forecasting of swine flu dynamics is performed here.
Methodology: Case fatality rates (CFR) are well established predictors of adverse human health outcomes, independent of overall disease status. To increase our understanding of the potential severity of outbreaks of H1N1 influenza in India, we study the pattern H1N1 infections since the outbreak of pandemic H1N1 in 2009 and derive both linear and non-linear trends for forecasting severity of infection based on CFR of H1N1 cases. Open access data available at different data bases WHO National Influenza Centre, www.who.inf/flunet; FluTrackers.com (flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/seasonal flu-2009-2014; Press Information Bureau, Government of India, http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease. aspx?relid=107145; http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=115361) and media (http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nat...jab/25608html), are utilised in this study. The trendline forecast were derived from Microsoft-Excel using scatter chart and trendline option.
Results: Time series forecasting of H1N1 infection using smoothing methods reveal infection peaking during winter and rainy seasons of a year. Downward sloping polynomial curve (R2=0.931) indicate declining trend of H1N1-infection over time. Polynomial forecasting the severity of H1N1 infection based on H1N1 case fatality rate (CFR), it is predicted to rise by ~20% in 2015 in comparison to 2014, and 30% in 2016 in comparison to 2015.
Conclusion: In the absence of effective control measures, the H1N1 fatalities are predicted to assume severe effect in the winter of 2015 and in 2016. Possibly, disproportionate control measures, loss of immunity and a possible antigenic drift in H1N1 virus underlie the re-emergence of viral onslaught in 2015 in India.
The theoretical study of supersalts Na2MgX4 (X = F, Cl) has been performed. The formation of the supersalts was considered through association reactions between different building blocks: superalkalies and superhalogens, ionic (Na2X+ and MgX3−) and neutral (Na2X and MgX3), as well as dimers Na2X2 and traditional salts MgX2. The optimization of geometrical structures, and determination of vibrational spectra of supersalts and their respective building blocks was carried out by the DFT/B3P86 and MP2 methods; the McLean-Chandler basis set and the extended basis set (cc-pVTZ for Na, Mg; aug-cc-pVTZ for F, Cl) were used. Different possible geometrical configurations for Na2MgX4 were considered, among which two structures: two- cycled structure of D2d symmetry and polyhedral,C2v, were proved to be isomers; their relative concentrations in equilibrium vapour were evaluated. The energies and enthalpies of the association reactions were determined. The enthalpies of formation ∆fH°(0) of gas-phase supersalts found as follows: -1850± 30 kJ×mol-1(Na2MgF4) and -1170±40 kJ×mol-1(Na2MgCl4).
Eco-design and degrade remanufacturing of steel shells of high remanufacturability through increasing of disassembly and accumulation of drawbacks that prevent facilitation of recovery to be of smallest partition. Recovered steel is small uniform pieces which can be nested within base of new steel strips by means of riveting. Emerged composite shape steel strips can be formed into structural steel sections and thus value creation and both power and fossil carbon emissions reduction can be satisfied. To help fossil carbon emissions reduction based value creation for human development, environmental education and employment.
Aims: Two steps eco-design and degrade remanufacturing based fossil carbon reduction producers are studied and which include:-
1- Eco-design to reduce power consumption currently of oil filer steel shells production. 2- Design for degrade remanufacturing potentials planting to be end-of-life processing strategy
Methodology: Power consumption is monitored and eco-audit is recorded for each manufacturing process of technological path for oil filter shells production to study possibility of power reduction. Eco-design is applied after reviewing of current designs of shells and modifications are applied to certain power reduction to help, in role, reduction of fossil carbon emissions. Current reduction will be followed by strategically reduction through degrade remanufacturing of end-of- life shells into structural steel.
Results: Welding process is used for assembly, which let disassembly is hard to perform. Eliminate welding process can enable current reduction of power, fossil fuel and carbon emission. Also facilities degrade remanufacturing at the end of life of shells into construction steel sections.
Conclusion: Mitigation effect of eco-design through saving both of time and power where sustainable human power is exploited can allow educational institutions of developing countries without industrial infrastructures conduct remanufacturing of end-of-life steel with high flexibility by increasing percentage of disassembly process.
This study, was conducted between April 2011 and July 2012, to estimate the degree of impact of road traffic noise on the exposed population in terms of sleep disturbances in daytime and nighttime periods in order to suggest ways of minimizing the impact if it appears adverse. Acoustical and social surveys were conducted. From acoustical survey, noise level data were obtained, while in social survey, responses of how road traffic noise affects city dwellers during sleep were obtained as well. This is to correlate acoustical (objective) data with social (subjective response) data to help estimate the degree of impact of the road traffic noise on the people exposed to it. Five (5) cities were randomly chosen after pilot study. These are Calabar, Uyo, Umuahia, Owerri and Port Harcourt cities. The cities were found to be of huge road traffic volume, with enormous environmental noise pollution indicators. A precision sound level meter (SLM), Bruel and Kjaer (B&K), type 732 was used after calibration, to obtain noise level data, while a questionnaire carefully designed by these authors, was used to generate subjective response data from respondents. Five thousand (5000) copies of the questionnaire were distributed carefully to 5000 persons, 2500 each for both high and low road traffic noise pollution zones. Response rates were 93.5% (high noise zone) and 94.8% (low noise zones). One hundred (100) measurement sites were chosen in all (50 sites each for both high and low noise zones). Results obtained show that the degree of sleep disturbance during daytime range between 93.8% to 95.8%, and during nighttime was 98.5 to 98.8%. From these findings, it is very clear that people living along busy roads in the cities under study are really suffering from serious sleep disturbances both at night and day times
Introduction: Emissions from a variety of air particulate sources have resulted in atmospheric pollution that, in turn, has produced serious problems, causing irreversible reactions in the environment and hence is posing a major threat to our very existence.
Aim: Identify monthly variations of particulate matter mass concentrations in air, the contribution of each size fraction (coarse and fine) to PM10 levels, and the contributions from natural and anthropogenic sources.
Methodology: PM10 ambient air particulates in two size fractions being the coarse (PM10-2.5) and fine (PM2.5) were sampled. Heavy metals and carbonaceous compounds [organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC)] concentrations were determined. Enrichment factor (EF) was used to identify species of crustal and non-crustal origin in ambient air particulates. The identified elements were used to develop fingerprints for a number of particulate sources.
Results: The mean coarse and fine particulate levels obtained were 89.2 mg/m3 and 21.6 mg/m3respectively. The maximum and minimum levels occurred in February (dry season) and July (rainy season) respectively. Soil dust was found to be the major source of particulates in the two size fractions (coarse and fine). The sulphur contents in Harmattan (cold dry winds) dust in the dry season was found to be predominantly in the coarse fraction. EF was used to identify species of crustal and non–crustal origin in ambient air particulates. The Enrichment Factor values for the elements Cr, Cu, Zn, Pb, and Br showed that they were mostly from anthropogenic sources.
Conclusion: This study emphasizes the significant impact of seasonal variations on particulate levels. The problem with air quality is seen to be greatest during the Harmattan when cold dry winds blow soil dust particulates across West Africa.
Aims: To assess the impact of cyclone PAM on the rainwater harvesting prospects in the Pacific region.
Study Design: The study was conducted based on the field observations, data from various government organizations and NGOs.
Place and Duration of Study: The study was based in Port Vila, Vanuatu along with nearby Island countries like New Caledonia, Solomon Islands, Fiji and Tuvalu were part of the study. The study was conducted from mid-March to the end of June, 2015.
Methodology: The study was based on the field observations; estimates from authenticated sources with the evidence of the pictorial data of remote areas; community feedbacks; government department’s data and NGO’s reports. The views of individuals, community heads, government bodies and relief workers of various national and international agencies were integral part of this assessment.
Results: The impact of category 5 cyclone PAM on the prospects of rainwater harvest in the Pacific region was at the highest order. An average of 76% damage to these was recorded in theregion.
Conclusion: A serious introspection had risen for the regional practices of rainwater harvesting in the Pacific and seems in bringing a drastic change for sustainable practices which would withstand the global changes. May be an integrated model with traditional setup and modern equipment shall make sure for sustaining future natural disasters besides longevity and for the better prospects.
This paper presents the study of the current Nigerian ICT policy, its evaluation and an investigation into its application and adoption for socio-economic development of Nigeria’s ICT infrastructure and a knowledge based society. The research is grounded in the co-evolving theory of the innovation systems approach and the information society. The analytical framework is based on three stage model of ICT - readiness, intensity and impact. This model intersects between network society and innovation systems theory, showing technology/innovation as a significant element of how ICTs contribute to economic growth and integration at country level (Nigeria); networks as the enablers of coordinated activity in innovation processes linking actors and systems of innovation, e. g. firms, government, research institutes, regulatory frameworks; and the policy, dimension focusing on the role of national actors for enhancing innovation and networking. A survey was conducted in three most industrialized cities of Nigeria (Abuja, Lagos, and Port Harcourt) in order to explore attitudes of Nigerians towards application of the Nigerian lCT policy. The review on which this report is based covers the whole of the ICT sector in Nigeria and the regulatory ICT policies from 1999 to 2015. The purpose of the study is therefore to assess the performance and application of the ICT sector with attention to areas that need to be improved upon.
Eigenvalues are a special set of scalars associated with a linear system of equations, that are sometimes also known as characteristic roots. In this work, a Java-based algorithm is developed to find the eigenvalues for Toeplitz matrices using Adomian’s decomposition method (shortly, ADM). Illustrative examples will be examined to support the proposed analysis.
Mixed fruit jam was prepared from blends of pineapple, tomato and pawpaw at different ratios while, commercial jam from strawberry served as the control. Jams made from different fruit ratios and the control were examined for their proximate composition, mineral contents as well as sensory attributes. The result of the proximate composition shows that, the control (commercial strawberry jam) was found to be significantly (p<0.05) high in moisture, fat and crude protein. However, the test samples were significantly (p<0.05) high in ash and carbohydrate contents and favourably compete with the control in vitamin c. The calcium content of the control was significantly (p<0.05) high than the test samples however, the test samples showed superiority in manganese, iron, magnesium and phosphorus contents. In sensory attributes, the control and the test samples showed no significant difference in texture and flavour. In taste, the test samples were found to be significantly (p<0.05) high than the control. In appearance and general acceptability, the control and the test samples compared favourably. Hence, samples b (17% pineapple, 14% tomato and 13% pawpaw) and c (16% pineapple, 16% tomato and 12% pawpaw) compared favourably with the control in chemical and sensory attributes. The new formulated product can serve as a good spread on bread and a dessert.
In open normative multi-agent systems, norms are created dynamically. Some of these norms emerge and persist due to their benefits and strength. While other norms emerge for a short period of time, then vanish due to several reasons that lead to loss in their benefit or strength. Each norm of the created ones might have positive, negative, or neutral consequences on the system. Norms decay refers to the case in which a norm is not practiced or adopted by any of society's members, and eventually deleted and forgotten. In this paper, we analyze the concept of norms decay and introduce a framework that contains the cases of norms decay which are conceived from the literature. The proposed framework contains three cases of norms decay which are: Norms Removal, Norms Disappearance, and Norms Collapse. The first case needs an intervention from a powerful authority, while the latter two cases happen when society members stop adopting or violate a norm.